Projects

My research quantifies, explains and predicts how cumulative pressures drive biodiversity loss, and develops the tools to manage them. I work on pressures ranging from fire and predation to land use change and business activity, using ecological modelling to turn that understanding into evidence for conservation managers, businesses and regulators.

1. Understanding compounding threats and disturbances

Biodiversity is under growing pressure from many threats at once, and climate change will intensify the interactions between them. We study how interacting threats (e.g. invasive predators), disturbances (e.g. fire, drought) and ecological processes (e.g. predation, herbivory) shape species and communities, and how that knowledge can improve conservation outcomes. Projects range from local landscapes in south-west and south-eastern Australia to continental scales.

Key papers:

• Geary et al. (2026). Optimising fire and predator management for conservation. Journal of Applied Ecology
• Geary et al. (2023). Identifying historical and future global change drivers that place species recovery at risk. Global Change Biology
• Geary et al. (2019). Threat Webs: re-framing the co-occurrence and interactions of threats to biodiversity. Journal of Applied Ecology

2. Quantifying the impacts of business activity on biodiversity

Economic activity is one of the largest drivers of pressure on biodiversity, and it is a pressure that can be measured, attributed and changed. We use species distribution models to estimate the scale, location and intensity of business impacts on nature, informing nature-related disclosure, business practice and investment decisions.

Key papers:

• Geary et al. (2026). Measuring biodiversity impact, change and restoration opportunity for business. EcoEvoRXiv
• Hickman et al. (2025). Making money talk nicely: Biodiversity impact assessment for investors. SSRN Preprint
• Nimmo et al. (2025). The Underestimated Global Impact of Mining on Threatened Species. Cell Sustainability

3. Decision-support tools for managing cumulative pressures

Drawing on my experience in government, I develop quantitative tools that turn this science into management decisions. We combine spatial conservation planning, expert elicitation, ecosystem modelling and decision science to help managers and decision-makers choose between actions under complex, competing pressures.

Key papers:

• Geary et al. (2025). Optimising fire and predator management for conservation. Journal of Applied Ecology
• Geary et al. (2020). A guide to ecosystem models and their environmental applications. Nature Ecology & Evolution
• Geary et al. (2021). Responding to the biodiversity impacts of a megafire. Diversity & Distributions